Rest of Season Projection
ChaseCategoryRyne
34K →53
3.70ERA ←3.72
1.24WHIP ←1.25
2–6W ←1–3
0SV →1–3
Current Season
ChaseCategoryRyne
20K →30
2.33ERA ←5.56
0.93WHIP ←1.76
2W ←1
0SV →1
What Each Player's System Trusts
Chase Shugart
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.244 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.48 is 1.15 above the ERA — regression coming
Ryne Stanek
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.357 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Chase Shugart: 34 K / 3.70 ERA. Ryne Stanek: 53 K / 3.72 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).