Rest of Season Projection
ChaseCategoryTyler
33K →36
3.70ERA →3.67
1.24WHIP ←1.25
2–6W ←1–2
0SV →1–6
Current Season
ChaseCategoryTyler
20K →21
2.33ERA ←3.12
0.93WHIP ←1.38
2W ←1
0SV →2
What Each Player's System Trusts
Chase Shugart
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.244 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.48 is 1.15 above the ERA — regression coming
Tyler Alexander
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.12)
Chase Shugart: 33 K / 3.70 ERA. Tyler Alexander: 36 K / 3.67 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).