Rest of Season Projection
ChrisCategoryMerrill
84K ←80
4.54ERA ←6.15
1.43WHIP ←1.45
0–0W →6–14
0SV0
Current Season
ChrisCategoryMerrill
35K ←33
6.90ERA →5.06
1.71WHIP →1.46
0W →5
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Chris Paddack
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.353 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Merrill Kelly
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 7.26 +3.16 vs league with no luck excuse
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Chris Paddack: 84 K / 4.54 ERA. Merrill Kelly: 80 K / 6.15 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).