Rest of Season Projection
ColinCategoryJason
34K ←32
3.69ERA3.70
1.24WHIP1.24
3–8W ←2–5
0SV →1–3
Current Season
ColinCategoryJason
23K ←11
2.14ERA →0.90
0.81WHIP ←1.00
3W ←2
0SV →1
What Each Player's System Trusts
Colin Holderman
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.208 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.70 is 0.74 above the ERA — regression coming
Jason Adam
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.246 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.04 is 1.33 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Colin Holderman: 34 K / 3.69 ERA. Jason Adam: 32 K / 3.70 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).