Rest of Season Projection
ColinCategoryJosé
35K →52
3.69ERA3.70
1.24WHIP1.24
3–8W ←1–3
0SV →1–3
Current Season
ColinCategoryJosé
23K →26
2.14ERA ←5.59
0.81WHIP ←1.81
3W ←1
0SV →1
What Each Player's System Trusts
Colin Holderman
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.208 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.69 is 0.73 above the ERA — regression coming
José Alvarado
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.426 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Colin Holderman: 35 K / 3.69 ERA. José Alvarado: 52 K / 3.70 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).