Rest of Season Projection
ColinCategoryZack
79K ←63
5.23ERA ←5.28
1.39WHIP →1.35
5–11W5–11
0SV0
Current Season
ColinCategoryZack
49K ←35
4.70ERA ←5.01
1.37WHIP1.37
5W5
1SV ←0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Colin Rea
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.84 +1.74 vs league with no luck excuse
Zack Littell
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.244 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 5.92 is 1.16 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Colin Rea: 81 K / 5.19 ERA. Zack Littell: 65 K / 5.27 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).