Rest of Season Projection
ColtCategoryRoyce
5HR →8
34R ←26
39RBI ←30
0SB →7
.178AVG →.190
Current Season
ColtCategoryRoyce
3HR3
7R →11
8RBI →13
0SB →3
.250AVG ←.159
What Each Player's System Trusts
Colt Emerson
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.247)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 30% is stable and high — caps the floor
Royce Lewis
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.215 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 31% is stable and high — caps the floor
Colt Emerson: 5 HR / 34 R. Royce Lewis: 8 HR / 26 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).