Rest of Season Projection
ConnorCategoryTyler
5HR →10
27R ←21
34RBI ←32
3SB ←0
.228AVG ←.212
Current Season
ConnorCategoryTyler
0HR →4
8R →11
10RBI →17
1SB ←0
.258AVG ←.193
What Each Player's System Trusts
Connor Wong
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.347 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.286 is 0.038 below the surface — regression coming
Tyler Stephenson
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.242 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
Connor Wong: 5 HR / 27 R. Tyler Stephenson: 10 HR / 21 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).