Rest of Season Projection
CorbinCategoryJuan
14HR →22
57R ←50
43RBI →53
11SB ←9
.266AVG →.280
Current Season
CorbinCategoryJuan
7HR →13
37R ←27
28RBI →29
7SB ←5
.286AVG →.297
What Each Player's System Trusts
Corbin Carroll
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.351 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.364 is 0.034 below the surface — regression coming
Juan Soto
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.415, +0.100 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Corbin Carroll: 14 HR / 57 R. Juan Soto: 22 HR / 50 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).