Rest of Season Projection
CorbinCategoryMike
14HR →21
57R →67
43RBI →46
11SB ←7
.266AVG ←.240
Current Season
CorbinCategoryMike
7HR →14
37R →45
28RBI →31
7SB ←5
.286AVG ←.242
What Each Player's System Trusts
Corbin Carroll
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.351 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.364 is 0.034 below the surface — regression coming
Mike Trout
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.420, +0.105 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Corbin Carroll: 14 HR / 57 R. Mike Trout: 21 HR / 67 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).