Rest of Season Projection
DavidCategoryJac
6HR →14
33R33
22RBI22
0SB →2
.193AVG →.255
Current Season
DavidCategoryJac
3HR →6
12R →20
8RBI →13
0SB →1
.259AVG ←.242
What Each Player's System Trusts
David Fry
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.360 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.280 is 0.067 below the surface — regression coming
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 30% is stable and high — caps the floor
Jac Caglianone
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.340, +0.025 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 31% is stable and high — caps the floor
David Fry: 6 HR / 33 R. Jac Caglianone: 14 HR / 33 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).