Rest of Season Projection
EmersonCategoryPaul
97K →126
4.13ERA →2.28
1.13WHIP →1.04
4–9W →6–14
0SV0
Current Season
EmersonCategoryPaul
70K →75
2.80ERA ←2.89
0.95WHIP →0.86
4W →6
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Emerson Hancock
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.243 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.15 is 1.35 above the ERA — regression coming
Paul Skenes
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.28, 1.82 below league — production is earned
Emerson Hancock: 97 K / 4.13 ERA. Paul Skenes: 126 K / 2.28 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).