Rest of Season Projection
EmersonCategoryTarik
88K →96
4.28ERA →3.91
1.14WHIP ←1.25
4–8W4–9
0SV0
Current Season
EmersonCategoryTarik
70K ←45
2.80ERA →2.70
0.95WHIP0.95
4W ←3
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Emerson Hancock
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.239 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.37 is 1.63 above the ERA — regression coming
Tarik Skubal
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.22)
Emerson Hancock: 88 K / 4.28 ERA. Tarik Skubal: 96 K / 3.91 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).