Rest of Season Projection
FernandoCategoryRyan
46K ←36
3.67ERA ←3.70
1.25WHIP →1.24
2–6W ←0–0
0SV →4–8
Current Season
FernandoCategoryRyan
30K ←14
2.19ERA ←6.46
1.30WHIP ←1.89
3W ←0
0SV →3
What Each Player's System Trusts
Fernando Cruz
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.273 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.93 is 0.85 above the ERA — regression coming
Ryan Walker
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.21 is right around league — a usable arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.362 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Fernando Cruz: 46 K / 3.67 ERA. Ryan Walker: 36 K / 3.70 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).