MLB Daily DeltaWeek 18 · July 23, 2026
Portrait of Graham Ashcraft
Graham Ashcraft
CIN · P
Change to
Portrait of Justin Sterner
Justin Sterner
ATH · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Justin Sterner.

He projects to help you in more roto categories the rest of the way — strikeouts and WHIP. Graham Ashcraft’s box score looks better right now, but the luck-stripped projection flips it.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV

Justin Sterner wins 2 categories (K, WHIP); Graham Ashcraft wins 1 (SV); 2 even.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Graham Ashcraft
98.0
Justin Sterner
93.5
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Graham Ashcraft
14.7%
Justin Sterner
15.6%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Graham Ashcraft
29.4%
Justin Sterner
21.7%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Graham Ashcraft
33.3%
Justin Sterner
33.9%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Graham Ashcraft
36.1%
Justin Sterner
45.0%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Graham Ashcraft
6.6%
Justin Sterner
9.2%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Graham Ashcraft
.287
Justin Sterner
.292
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Graham Ashcraft
3.113.91
lg xERA 4.10
now 3.33
3.68
Justin Sterner
3.113.91
lg xERA 4.10
now 3.54
3.69
WHIPlower is better
Graham Ashcraft
1.041.33
now 1.22
1.26
Justin Sterner
1.041.33
now 1.11
1.24

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Graham Ashcraft
4037.60
now 32
18
Justin Sterner
4037.60
now 26
21
Winshigher is better
Graham Ashcraft
.0002.80
now 1
01
Justin Sterner
.0002.80
now 2
12
Saveshigher is better
Graham Ashcraft
.0002.40
now 1
01
Justin Sterner
.0002.40
now 0
0
If you already own them — trade angle
Hold · wait & seeGraham Ashcraft — hold.conf 0.50
Hold · wait & seeJustin Sterner — hold.conf 0.50
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