Rest of Season Projection
HenryCategoryLane
4HR →6
15R →19
15RBI →27
15SB ←6
.221AVG ←.218
Current Season
HenryCategoryLane
0HR →2
4R →10
4RBI →14
4SB ←3
.288AVG ←.226
What Each Player's System Trusts
Henry Bolte
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.444 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.281 is 0.069 below the surface — regression coming
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 30% is stable and high — caps the floor
Lane Thomas
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.308)
Henry Bolte: 4 HR / 15 R. Lane Thomas: 6 HR / 19 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).