Rest of Season Projection
JacksonCategoryJackson
12HR →13
36R →40
31RBI →32
14SB →15
.251AVG ←.245
Current Season
JacksonCategoryJackson
2HR →5
13R →26
11RBI →21
5SB →10
.276AVG ←.209
What Each Player's System Trusts
Jackson Chourio
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.403 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.349 is 0.036 below the surface — regression coming
Jackson Merrill
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.260 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
Jackson Chourio: 12 HR / 36 R. Jackson Merrill: 13 HR / 40 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).