Rest of Season Projection
BrandonCategoryJackson
10HR →14
49R ←41
40RBI ←33
7SB →16
.302AVG ←.242
Current Season
BrandonCategoryJackson
5HR5
29R ←26
24RBI ←21
4SB →10
.317AVG ←.209
What Each Player's System Trusts
Brandon Marsh
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.407 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.335 is 0.032 below the surface — regression coming
Jackson Merrill
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.260 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
Brandon Marsh: 10 HR / 49 R. Jackson Merrill: 14 HR / 41 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).