Rest of Season Projection
JakeCategoryOrlando
31K ←25
3.70ERA3.70
1.24WHIP1.24
1–3W ←0–0
0SV →2–7
Current Season
JakeCategoryOrlando
20K ←12
5.00ERA →1.72
1.33WHIP →0.89
1W ←0
0SV →2
What Each Player's System Trusts
Jake Bird
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.97 sits 0.13 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.353 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Orlando Ribalta
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.196 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.73 is 0.87 above the ERA — regression coming
Jake Bird: 32 K / 3.70 ERA. Orlando Ribalta: 26 K / 3.70 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).