Rest of Season Projection
JakeCategoryLuke
5HR →14
38R →41
48RBI →58
19SB ←2
.258AVG ←.234
Current Season
JakeCategoryLuke
4HR →13
20R →22
25RBI →31
10SB ←1
.288AVG ←.276
What Each Player's System Trusts
Jake McCarthy
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.339 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.323 is 0.030 below the surface — regression coming
Luke Raley
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.382, +0.067 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 32% is stable and high — caps the floor
Jake McCarthy: 5 HR / 38 R. Luke Raley: 14 HR / 41 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).