Rest of Season Projection
JakobCategoryTyler
25K ←24
3.68ERA →3.61
1.24WHIP ←1.25
0–0W →1–2
3–6SV ←2–4
Current Season
JakobCategoryTyler
16K16
1.75ERA ←2.36
0.78WHIP ←1.13
0W →1
3SV ←2
What Each Player's System Trusts
Jakob Junis
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.200 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.26 is 1.69 above the ERA — regression coming
Tyler Rogers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (2.24)
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Jakob Junis: 25 K / 3.68 ERA. Tyler Rogers: 24 K / 3.61 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).