Rest of Season Projection
JavierCategoryMatt
33K ←30
3.71ERA3.71
1.24WHIP ←1.25
4–10W3–9
0SV →1–3
Current Season
JavierCategoryMatt
14K →19
5.88ERA →2.63
1.27WHIP ←1.29
3W →4
0SV →1
What Each Player's System Trusts
Javier Assad
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.87)
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Matt Gage
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.227 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.06 is 1.43 above the ERA — regression coming
Javier Assad: 33 K / 3.71 ERA. Matt Gage: 30 K / 3.71 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).