Rest of Season Projection
JocCategoryRafael
11HR →14
39R ←36
32RBI →42
0SB0
.234AVG ←.229
Current Season
JocCategoryRafael
8HR ←7
23R →26
19RBI →30
0SB0
.240AVG →.251
What Each Player's System Trusts
Joc Pederson
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.352, +0.037 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Rafael Devers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.291 below league with no luck excuse
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 30% is stable and high — caps the floor
Joc Pederson: 11 HR / 39 R. Rafael Devers: 14 HR / 36 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).