Rest of Season Projection
JoelCategoryRyan
21K →22
3.72ERA →3.70
1.24WHIP1.24
1–2W →3–8
4–8SV ←0
Current Season
JoelCategoryRyan
13K →16
3.04ERA →2.89
1.18WHIP ←1.39
1W →3
4SV ←0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Joel Kuhnel
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.34)
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Ryan Rolison
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.268 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.08 is 1.83 above the ERA — regression coming
Joel Kuhnel: 21 K / 3.72 ERA. Ryan Rolison: 23 K / 3.70 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).