Rest of Season Projection
JoelCategorySpencer
25K →52
3.73ERA →3.67
1.24WHIP ←1.25
1–2W →2–5
4–8SV ←0
Current Season
JoelCategorySpencer
13K →34
3.04ERA ←3.47
1.18WHIP →1.16
1W →2
4SV ←0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Joel Kuhnel
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.256 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.45 is 1.57 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Spencer Miles
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.53)
Joel Kuhnel: 25 K / 3.73 ERA. Spencer Miles: 52 K / 3.67 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).