Rest of Season Projection
JoelCategoryJustin
26K →47
3.73ERA →3.61
1.25WHIP →1.24
1–2W →2–5
5–8SV ←0
Current Season
JoelCategoryJustin
13K →26
3.04ERA ←3.54
1.18WHIP →1.11
1W →2
4SV ←0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Joel Kuhnel
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.267 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.56 is 1.52 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 13% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Justin Sterner
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (2.42)
Joel Kuhnel: 26 K / 3.73 ERA. Justin Sterner: 47 K / 3.61 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).