Rest of Season Projection
JoeyCategoryTyler
6HR →9
32R ←18
21RBI →28
0SB0
.199AVG →.219
Current Season
JoeyCategoryTyler
2HR →4
9R →11
6RBI →17
0SB0
.259AVG ←.193
What Each Player's System Trusts
Joey Bart
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.361 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.256 is 0.039 below the surface — regression coming
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 34% is stable and high — caps the floor
Tyler Stephenson
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.263 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
Joey Bart: 6 HR / 32 R. Tyler Stephenson: 9 HR / 18 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).