Rest of Season Projection
JohnCategoryKyle
25K →27
3.72ERA ←3.74
1.25WHIP ←1.28
0–0W →1–2
1–3SV1–2
Current Season
JohnCategoryKyle
13K →16
2.74ERA →1.93
1.30WHIP ←1.54
0W →1
1SV1
What Each Player's System Trusts
John Schreiber
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.230 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.47 is 1.80 above the ERA — regression coming
Kyle Finnegan
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.267 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.24 is 2.23 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
John Schreiber: 25 K / 3.72 ERA. Kyle Finnegan: 27 K / 3.74 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).