Rest of Season Projection
JohnCategoryTyler
27K →36
3.73ERA3.72
1.25WHIP1.25
0–0W →1–2
1–3SV ←0
Current Season
JohnCategoryTyler
13K →24
2.74ERA ←4.23
1.30WHIP ←1.37
0W →1
1SV ←0
What Each Player's System Trusts
John Schreiber
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.239 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.84 is 2.00 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Tyler Holton
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.00 sits 0.10 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.357 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
John Schreiber: 27 K / 3.73 ERA. Tyler Holton: 36 K / 3.72 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).