Rest of Season Projection
JoseCategoryRobbie
58K →101
4.25ERA ←4.77
1.36WHIP ←1.42
3–6W →3–6
0SV0
Current Season
JoseCategoryRobbie
20K →59
5.27ERA →4.45
1.51WHIP →1.40
2W →3
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Jose Quintana
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.90)
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 11% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Robbie Ray
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.265 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 5.13 is 0.71 above the ERA — regression coming
Jose Quintana: 59 K / 4.25 ERA. Robbie Ray: 102 K / 4.76 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).