Rest of Season Projection
MattCategoryTristan
12HR ←10
36R ←25
28RBI →53
0SB →2
.244AVG ←.236
Current Season
MattCategoryTristan
2HR →4
27R ←11
21RBI →23
0SB →1
.234AVG →.237
What Each Player's System Trusts
Matt Chapman
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.317 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.296 is 0.039 below the surface — regression coming
Tristan Gray
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.299)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 31% is stable and high — caps the floor
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.333 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
Matt Chapman: 12 HR / 36 R. Tristan Gray: 10 HR / 25 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).