Rest of Season Projection
MattCategoryRyan
39K ←25
3.69ERA3.70
1.24WHIP1.24
1–2W →2–5
1–3SV ←0
Current Season
MattCategoryRyan
27K ←12
4.68ERA →2.75
1.24WHIP →1.17
1W →2
1SV ←0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Matt Festa
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.37)
Ryan Thompson
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.262 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.68 is 1.15 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Matt Festa: 39 K / 3.69 ERA. Ryan Thompson: 25 K / 3.70 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).