Rest of Season Projection
PaulCategoryRyan
32K ←29
3.71ERA3.70
1.25WHIP →1.24
2–5W2–6
0SV0
Current Season
PaulCategoryRyan
16K ←12
3.33ERA →2.75
1.44WHIP →1.17
2W2
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Paul Blackburn
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.06)
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Ryan Thompson
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.237 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.36 is 0.61 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Paul Blackburn: 32 K / 3.71 ERA. Ryan Thompson: 29 K / 3.70 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).