Rest of Season Projection
MerrillCategoryPaul
80K →126
6.15ERA →2.28
1.45WHIP →1.04
6–14W6–14
0SV0
Current Season
MerrillCategoryPaul
33K →75
5.06ERA →2.89
1.46WHIP →0.86
5W →6
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Merrill Kelly
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 7.26 +3.16 vs league with no luck excuse
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Paul Skenes
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.28, 1.82 below league — production is earned
Merrill Kelly: 80 K / 6.15 ERA. Paul Skenes: 126 K / 2.28 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).