Rest of Season Projection
TroyCategoryWalker
36K →89
4.10ERA ←4.44
1.30WHIP ←1.36
4–9W4–8
0SV0
Current Season
TroyCategoryWalker
4K →43
1.42ERA ←4.88
0.95WHIP ←1.32
1W →3
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Troy Melton
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.175 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.45 is 2.71 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 11% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Walker Buehler
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.63 +0.53 vs league with no luck excuse
Troy Melton: 36 K / 4.10 ERA. Walker Buehler: 89 K / 4.44 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).