MLB Daily DeltaWeek 16 · July 9, 2026
Aaron Civale
ATH · P
Change to
JR Ritchie
ATL · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Too close to call.

They split your categories 22. Take whoever fills a bigger need.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Aaron Civale wins 2 (K, W); JR Ritchie wins 2 (ERA, WHIP); SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Aaron Civale
91.3
JR Ritchie
94.4
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Aaron Civale
9.4%
JR Ritchie
9.7%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Aaron Civale
16.5%
JR Ritchie
21.4%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Aaron Civale
30.9%
JR Ritchie
26.3%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Aaron Civale
45.6%
JR Ritchie
39.7%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Aaron Civale
9.7%
JR Ritchie
7.4%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Aaron Civale
.348
JR Ritchie
.331
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Aaron Civale
3.865.07
lg xERA 4.10
now 4.20
4.80
JR Ritchie
3.865.07
lg xERA 4.10
now 4.56
4.13
WHIPlower is better
Aaron Civale
1.241.54
now 1.47
1.39
JR Ritchie
1.241.54
now 1.44
1.31

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Aaron Civale
4060.20
now 39
49
JR Ritchie
4060.20
now 21
45
Winshigher is better
Aaron Civale
.00010.80
now 5
48
JR Ritchie
.00010.80
now 1
13

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
SellAaron Civale — sell.conf 0.87
Hold · wait & seeJR Ritchie — hold.conf 0.50
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