Rest of Season Projection
AaronCategoryLance
100K ←89
4.29ERA →4.17
1.34WHIP1.34
3–6W3–6
0SV0
Current Season
AaronCategoryLance
64K ←43
5.55ERA ←6.86
1.39WHIP ←1.53
3W ←2
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Aaron Nola
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.337 elevated and unstable — the 5.86 ERA overstates the damage
- xeraSIGNALbut luck-free xERA 4.39 is +0.29 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
Lance McCullers Jr.
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.48)
Aaron Nola: 100 K / 4.29 ERA. Lance McCullers Jr.: 89 K / 4.17 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).