Rest of Season Projection
AlbertCategoryMatt
26K →29
3.71ERA3.71
1.24WHIP ←1.25
2–7W →3–9
1–4SV ←1–3
Current Season
AlbertCategoryMatt
10K →19
2.61ERA ←2.63
1.21WHIP ←1.29
2W →4
1SV1
What Each Player's System Trusts
Albert Suárez
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.271 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 5.15 is 0.75 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Matt Gage
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.227 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.07 is 1.44 above the ERA — regression coming
Albert Suárez: 26 K / 3.71 ERA. Matt Gage: 29 K / 3.71 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).