Rest of Season Projection
AlecCategoryRafael
12HR →15
39R39
56RBI ←45
3SB ←0
.287AVG ←.228
Current Season
AlecCategoryRafael
7HR7
26R26
38RBI ←30
2SB ←0
.281AVG ←.251
What Each Player's System Trusts
Alec Burleson
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.373, +0.058 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Rafael Devers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.290 below league with no luck excuse
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 31% is stable and high — caps the floor
Alec Burleson: 12 HR / 39 R. Rafael Devers: 15 HR / 39 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).