Rest of Season Projection
AndrewCategoryKyle
34K ←27
3.70ERA ←3.74
1.24WHIP ←1.28
0–0W →1–2
0SV →1–2
Current Season
AndrewCategoryKyle
12K →16
7.59ERA →1.93
1.69WHIP →1.54
0W →1
0SV →1
What Each Player's System Trusts
Andrew Kittredge
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.15 sits 0.95 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.340 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Kyle Finnegan
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.267 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.22 is 2.21 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Andrew Kittredge: 34 K / 3.70 ERA. Kyle Finnegan: 27 K / 3.74 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).