Rest of Season Projection
AndrewCategoryMerrill
81K ←80
4.50ERA ←6.15
1.38WHIP ←1.45
1–3W →6–14
0SV0
Current Season
AndrewCategoryMerrill
43K ←33
5.74ERA →5.06
1.52WHIP →1.46
1W →5
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Andrew Painter
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.337 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Merrill Kelly
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 7.26 +3.16 vs league with no luck excuse
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Andrew Painter: 81 K / 4.50 ERA. Merrill Kelly: 80 K / 6.15 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).