Rest of Season Projection
AndrewCategoryJake
9HR →16
36R →53
36RBI →57
0SB →7
.314AVG ←.258
Current Season
AndrewCategoryJake
1HR →9
10R →31
10RBI →33
0SB →4
.354AVG ←.277
What Each Player's System Trusts
Andrew Vaughn
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.393 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.347 is 0.066 below the surface — regression coming
Jake Bauers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.355, +0.040 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Andrew Vaughn: 9 HR / 36 R. Jake Bauers: 16 HR / 53 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).