Rest of Season Projection
AroldisCategoryMason
55K →57
3.70ERA →3.67
1.24WHIP1.24
0–0W →3–9
17–31SV ←0
Current Season
AroldisCategoryMason
25K →30
0.48ERA ←4.09
0.86WHIP ←1.36
0W →3
12SV ←0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Aroldis Chapman
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.231 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.94 is 2.46 above the ERA — regression coming
Mason Fluharty
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.375 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Aroldis Chapman: 55 K / 3.70 ERA. Mason Fluharty: 57 K / 3.67 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).