Rest of Season Projection
AaronCategoryAroldis
66K ←55
3.55ERA ←3.70
1.25WHIP →1.24
7–19W ←0–0
0SV →17–31
Current Season
AaronCategoryAroldis
51K ←25
2.00ERA →0.48
1.28WHIP →0.86
9W ←0
0SV →12
What Each Player's System Trusts
Aaron Ashby
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (2.70)
Aroldis Chapman
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.231 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.94 is 2.46 above the ERA — regression coming
Ashby projects for 66 K / 3.55 ERA vs Chapman's 55 K / 3.70 ERA. The ERA and K edges support Ashby's hold versus Chapman's sell-high verdict.