Rest of Season Projection
AroldisCategoryPete
52K ←47
3.70ERA3.70
1.24WHIP1.24
0–0W →3–6
15–29SV ←9–16
Current Season
AroldisCategoryPete
25K ←22
0.48ERA ←7.04
0.86WHIP ←1.30
0W →2
12SV ←6
What Each Player's System Trusts
Aroldis Chapman
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.220 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.97 is 2.51 above the ERA — regression coming
Pete Fairbanks
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.60)
Aroldis Chapman: 52 K / 3.70 ERA. Pete Fairbanks: 47 K / 3.70 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).