Rest of Season Projection
BenCategoryJoc
20HR ←11
70R ←42
70RBI ←34
3SB ←0
.270AVG ←.229
Current Season
BenCategoryJoc
17HR ←8
44R ←23
44RBI ←19
2SB ←0
.306AVG ←.240
What Each Player's System Trusts
Ben Rice
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.333 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.408 is 0.034 below the surface — regression coming
Joc Pederson
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.349, +0.034 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Ben Rice: 20 HR / 70 R. Joc Pederson: 11 HR / 42 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).