Rest of Season Projection
BrandonCategoryPaul
59K →109
4.28ERA →2.49
1.34WHIP →1.07
3–7W →6–12
0SV0
Current Season
BrandonCategoryPaul
19K →75
6.11ERA →2.89
1.64WHIP →0.86
2W →6
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Brandon Williamson
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.268 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 6.58 is 0.47 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Paul Skenes
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.49, 1.61 below league — production is earned
Brandon Williamson: 59 K / 4.28 ERA. Paul Skenes: 109 K / 2.49 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).