MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 20, 2026
Portrait of Caleb Ferguson
Caleb Ferguson
CIN · P
Change to
Jimmy Herget
COL · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Too close to call.

They split your categories 11, 3 even. Take whoever fills a bigger need.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV

Caleb Ferguson wins 1 (K); Jimmy Herget wins 1 (SV); 3 even.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Caleb Ferguson
92.4
Jimmy Herget
92.0
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Caleb Ferguson
9.1%
Jimmy Herget
14.3%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Caleb Ferguson
22.4%
Jimmy Herget
24.1%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Caleb Ferguson
30.9%
Jimmy Herget
31.6%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Caleb Ferguson
35.1%
Jimmy Herget
40.5%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Caleb Ferguson
3.5%
Jimmy Herget
9.5%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Caleb Ferguson
.290
Jimmy Herget
.289
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Caleb Ferguson
27.08
lg xERA 4.10
now 0.00
3.70
Jimmy Herget
27.08
lg xERA 4.10
now 5.06
3.70
WHIPlower is better
Caleb Ferguson
.9001.69
now 0.60
1.24
Jimmy Herget
.9001.69
now 1.38
1.24

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Caleb Ferguson
4036.80
now 6
28
Jimmy Herget
4036.80
now 17
20
Winshigher is better
Caleb Ferguson
.000.480
now 0
00
Jimmy Herget
.000.480
now 0
00
Saveshigher is better
Caleb Ferguson
.0003.40
now 0
0
Jimmy Herget
.0003.40
now 1
02
If you already own them — trade angle
Hold · wait & seeCaleb Ferguson — hold.conf 0.50
Buy LowJimmy Herget — buy low. The dip is a window to acquire.conf 0.83
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