MLB Daily DeltaWeek 16 · July 11, 2026
Portrait of Caleb Ferguson
Caleb Ferguson
CIN · P
Change to
Matt Svanson
STL · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Caleb Ferguson.

He projects to help you in more roto categories the rest of the way — strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Caleb Ferguson wins 3 categories (K, ERA, WHIP); Matt Svanson wins 1 (W); SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Caleb Ferguson
92.5
Matt Svanson
97.0
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Caleb Ferguson
8.7%
Matt Svanson
9.4%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Caleb Ferguson
22.4%
Matt Svanson
21.6%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Caleb Ferguson
29.3%
Matt Svanson
24.7%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Caleb Ferguson
33.3%
Matt Svanson
46.0%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Caleb Ferguson
2.0%
Matt Svanson
7.3%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Caleb Ferguson
.281
Matt Svanson
.362
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Caleb Ferguson
28.25
lg xERA 4.10
now 0.00
3.70
Matt Svanson
28.25
lg xERA 4.10
now 8.77
3.80
WHIPlower is better
Caleb Ferguson
.9002.49
now 0.60
1.24
Matt Svanson
.9002.49
now 1.95
1.25

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Caleb Ferguson
4042.40
now 6
32
Matt Svanson
4042.40
now 26
28
Winshigher is better
Caleb Ferguson
.0001.48
now 0
00
Matt Svanson
.0001.48
now 1
11

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
Hold · wait & seeCaleb Ferguson — hold.conf 0.50
Hold · wait & seeMatt Svanson — hold.conf 0.55
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