MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 20, 2026
Portrait of Caleb Ferguson
Caleb Ferguson
CIN · P
Change to
Portrait of Keaton Winn
Keaton Winn
SF · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Too close to call.

They split your categories 11, 2 even. Take whoever fills a bigger need.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Caleb Ferguson wins 1 (K); Keaton Winn wins 1 (W); 2 even; SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Caleb Ferguson
92.4
Keaton Winn
96.4
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Caleb Ferguson
9.1%
Keaton Winn
11.4%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Caleb Ferguson
22.4%
Keaton Winn
20.5%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Caleb Ferguson
30.9%
Keaton Winn
28.5%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Caleb Ferguson
35.1%
Keaton Winn
28.1%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Caleb Ferguson
3.5%
Keaton Winn
4.5%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Caleb Ferguson
.290
Keaton Winn
.292
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Caleb Ferguson
25.18
lg xERA 4.10
now 0.00
3.70
Keaton Winn
25.18
lg xERA 4.10
now 2.45
3.69
WHIPlower is better
Caleb Ferguson
.9001.50
now 0.60
1.24
Keaton Winn
.9001.50
now 0.90
1.24

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Caleb Ferguson
4036.80
now 6
28
Keaton Winn
4036.80
now 22
18
Winshigher is better
Caleb Ferguson
.0001.48
now 0
00
Keaton Winn
.0001.48
now 1
01

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
Hold · wait & seeCaleb Ferguson — hold.conf 0.50
Sell HighKeaton Winn — sell high. His value is peaking; good time to trade him.conf 0.74
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